Is it worth it ??

There is always a feeling of lowness in this part of the calendar year when most of the numbers are out and the earnings call of various companied start to pour in. In-between the numerous meeting and page over page of valuation writeup of visit –review notes and strategic plans some time you feel like a joker in a circus playing his part for some measly peanut butter jam.

I was in a similar state of mind when I came up on this article by Toughee who regularly comes up with some brilliant piece. So here is one from the recent post that most of the Investment Banking pros might take a feel to.

“I still wasn’t convinced, until Bob whispered in my ear what I would make in the first year. It was about three times what I was paid at Bell Labs. I stopped protesting so loudly. He then said “And that’s for being right just 51% of the time,” Andy Kessler recounts in his book, Wall Street Meat - My Narrow Escape from the Stock Market Grinder. Kessler was a rank outsider on Wall Street, having come in as a semi-conductor analyst.

Now, what exactly is the role a stock analyst fulfils? At a very basic level, an analyst is supposed to have an opinion on the stock that helps investors make a decision whether to invest in that particular stock. But it is not as simple as that.

“Companies report earnings once a quarter. But stocks trade about 250 days a year. Something has to make them move up or down the other 246 days. Analysts fill that role. They recommend stocks, change recommendations, change earnings estimates, pound the table - whatever it takes for a sales force to go out with a story so someone will trade with the firm and generate commissions,” writes Kessler.

And what does it take to become an analyst on the Wall Street? “Let’s start with the basics. First, there are absolutely no qualifications whatsoever for an analyst job. I’ve always thought that a monkey could do the job, and many do. There are very few analyst training programs, and no obvious way to get a job as an analyst. Most are in the job by accident, as I certainly can attest to.” he writes.

Over time, Kessler was able to form an opinion on analysts in the business. “By watching other analysts in action, I figured out there were three types of analysts. There are: 1) those who know somebody in their industry, 2) those who know their industry and 3) those who don’t know anybody or anything. Lots of analysts had industry contacts - perhaps CEOs who they were buddies with or someone in the CFO’s office who was feeding them information.”

So, how do analysts who really do not know their industry survive? As Kessler writes “Though I was starting to be right on my stocks, I was increasingly convinced it didn’t matter. I looked around the research department, and noticed that very few analysts were right about anything. The job of an analyst has more to do with impressing everyone they come in contact with, and less to do with stocks. At one meeting I had with Fred Kittler, a portfolio manger at JP Morgan, he paused, looked me in the eye and said, “You realise, you are not in the analysis business, you are in the entertainment business.”

So ultimately you end as a burn out chasing Alpha for somebody. Ultimately one fine Monday morning there is a pink slip waiting for you just after you come in from your Honeymoon.

This is a typical Investment Bankers life..phew

Chess Widget

Trying out a chess widget on my Blog ... A sudden bend to use technology !!
Lets see if this works out


Looks some thing is wrong with the code... Hmm got to find some help..

A new feel

Its Aadi season and you have lot of offer on the cards. So I thought why not an Aadi offer for my blog. It has been a total neglect for a long time , so though of dust up the blog and included a new counter and global tracker to add that extra fizz.

That's not all we have more in store ... Couple of earlier blog rolls that I have in the HOT links have been pruned and fresh ones added. Of the new ones that I have added are Nasia and Arthi’s blog. These ladies give a whole new perspective and are quite a regular blogger so you have a thing or two other from them.

Nikil and Lijo have been moved out while Sara and SK find a place in. Nikil and Lijo have been a bit tight as the new found workplace firewalls are a hindrance to their creative side. So to compensate I have included Sara who is bound to bounce you out of your chair and SK with his SK-ism will kindle your grey cell to the extent that you won’t suicide.

Rohit has been maintained as I feel that he is bound to make a come back, I feel his job at Fever FM takes away most of the waking hours. Let me check if his mobile blog is up.

Also have added couple of investment blog to bring us back to monetary world.Couple of them mind sound too techie but I suggest that you stick on and keep reading and sure it will grow on you.Most of try and avoid money matters but a small dose of this kinda reading will be of sure help in the road ahead in life. This I hope will stand you in good stead and possibly so that you wont fall for the ULIP misselling that some advisors might come up with even without asking what your risk profile is !! phew

Yeah! you must be hungry after reading all this so to pep up things have included couple of food blog as varied as American, Continental and Indian American.

Hope you will like the new blog roll.

Can I have some Serotonin please

Most traders want to excel in their trades. It is the unwritten rule of the capital market game. It is also to increase the pie for the proprietary account or the client account. Which ever way the market moves the trader needs to be on top.

Not all traders are aggressive and as in any field you always have the so called laggards. It is always good to be the top of the line metro sexual alpha male.

It has always intruded me if I can find out what kind of mentality these people possess at the work floor by following some of the common and often ignored traits that people display at the work place. A few pointers on this.

Talk: If the person is extremely loud and talkative. You might very well find that they are aggressive in the field and the anxiety brings them to be very loud to get things across to the other pesron. Being loud can be taken as a symbol of authority. More often when there is no one to question you. A more subtle and non-aggressive person on the other hand is bound to make a softer landing approach and in a more unhurried manner.A relaxed approach is bound to have more safer than rough handling.

Walk: In a similar manner the most of the aggressive person more around quickly as the time that they have is not enough or at least thats the signal that you tend to get across. It is make or break at any moment for these kind of people.The cool cat trader on the other hand takes his time and is more risk averse and is more often found leaning towards the safer side. This type have a good risk management in place that at the slightest hint they wind up the position. Even thought the upside is unlimited the down side is also limited.

We can immidiatly figure out when a aggresive guy have fallen out of place. There will be a sudden breaking effect that shows up. You can feel that extra bit of lethargy in place with the person.The area becomes gloomy as the sound bytes die out. The way things shape up the unlimited risk would have hit like thunder bolt out of the blue.So if you could watch out you can probably see it coming.

So it if you get a chance do check this out and let me know the results. Well you make ask what Serotonin has got to do with behaviour.Well higher level of Serotonin plays a very important role in your behaviour pattern. A time is not far away when we can have it as a pill !!

I am a Bearish

We folks have a fancy for bear market or slightly bearish trend like what happened y’day.

This fall of 600 odd points on 01-Aug had couple of us cheering away. (No man no drinks. We want to stay sober) You could have found a some of us egging the index to fall a bit more !! A scene that is hard to believe after the tremondous bull run that we have had.Else where on the floor we found couple of folks squaring of long positions in frenzy as they had been caught on a wrong footing. Poor folsk hope they did not loose their shirt.

It is hard to make money unless you have a pretty good call on where the market is heading.Typically we late night owls keep an eye on the DJ (Dow Jones).With the rising market it was bound to fall anyways. But the key point was when it will break free.On 30-July the DJ was flat until the last hour of close. Then there was this sudden free fall of about 100 odd points.

So,the next morning we had this sell trigger and keeping a close eye on the Asian markets confirmed the call.So couple of our folks ventured into selling the Nifty future and needless to say had a windfall gain. Unfortunately for our gang who did not have the financial muscle to get into position in a very short period this was a big opportunity loss.But never the less we liked the bear operators having fun a lot.

But the silver lining was that I was harping on a Put option with couple of like minded folks for a couple of weeks.I had expected the market to correct before the July expiry. But it seems the market was waiting for smoke signals from across the globe. So any one who has had taken a August In-the-money Put option would have seems a good notional profit right now.

So how will the market go from here.Well I am waiting for the BOJ (Bank of Japan) policy.If they raise the Interest rates by another 25 bps then Will suggest to take buy another Put option expiring on Sep as the cumulative effect of FII winding up positions will have a chain reaction that can be seen here. Typically we can see the fission type reaction in about a month from the BOJ announcement i.e in case we have a rate hike. Other wise it will be neutral to slightly bullish.

Hope the BOJ raises the interest rates!!

Contrarian Bet on the YEN !!

Please find here the link to a article on the YEN.

Truly makes a interesting read for those in the money market.

Shall we short the NIFTY August??

Behind the screen happening in the a typical PG

Hi,

I found a interesting write up by Nasia.

http://exaggerration.blogspot.com/2007/07/this-ones-going-to-be-long.html

The post captures in graphic detial the behind the screen happening in the a typical PG....

This is a typical arm chair Psycho-analysis; correct me if I am wrong…,
Ppl do make the significant other more importance for the amount of affection that one gets and craves for. Suddenly you feel you are no longer wanted in the world and take the desperate measure. So it is the withdrawal symptom that springs from loneliness that makes certain ppl to get lost and bunch into such desperate activities to win over or show their loyalty.

London Trip

My much awaited trip to London has made me a bit nervous. being the first trip abroad this trip has raised my acidity levels to a new level. This is apart from the numerous butterfly that flap around time and again... But having a cool head and not showing the probable workings below has made others think that I visit Countries every other day.

I have been collecting 'data' so that I may survive the vicious onslought of Customs questions put forward to me.I even memorised pharases that do not lead to ''Branch questioning''.
So having got the details and operating procedures at the airport from a number of wellwishers I sat down to write a process doc on that !!Needless to say got fisty and dumped the entire thing.

As the BA flight ticket did not come thru I was happy to get a confired ticket on Srilankan Airlines. Then the news that I had to first fly to Colombo then take a connent flight to Heathrow Airport. Phew.... suddenly those goose pimples appear as my mind indirectly starts to associate with LTTE.You never know what these guys are up to next !! So I consoled myself seeing the number of enthu paasenger bound for Colombo .

So being up so early to take a flight has never been my forte. So I jumped as the Taxi guy come in at 0600 hrs IST to take me to airport. My flight was scheduled for 10.30 IST and luckly was on time !!

Contrary to popular belief the Colombo airport is lot more bindas and has the look of an International Airport.Seriously, A real good onewith clean toilets and clutter free pathways and decently carpeted the lounge room :) My flight to London was at 1.30 IST and the colombo bound flight from Chennai taking only an hour and 20 min only so I was dumbstruck as to what to do next !!

Suddenly out of no where I found a romantic couple Geee the Guy in shorts and white T shirt and the Gal in mini blue jean skirt and white halter top .Both were a treat to watch ;) That quite solved the problem as to how to pass the time

With the Flight is ready to board being announced I jumped at the oppourtunity to get inside the London bound UL 503 a Airbus 320-400. I found my seat without any problem as it was the same as the one I flew in From Chennai 23D asile seat towards the left.Alas I cud not see the window seneary as we typically get to do in the Railways ... So Railjourney has a edge on that front.

The Srilankan Airhostess have a unique way of wearing the sari ... typically showing the midriff a lot more than what is done by there Indian counterparts.There is a twist in the ''mundani'' that I was not able to identify with.Anyways it does not matter..or does it ?

The flight screamed to take off at 1.30 IST and within no time was touching 11000 feet after take off .I turned on the inflight entertainement to while away time , with nothing concreate on th block I switched off the system and tuned to Audio mode and tries listening to Arabic music !!
The plasma Tv showed that we were crusng at 34000 feet and I gently eased out of the safety lock.

Suddenly out of no where the Steward came up to me and served a meal which I did not ask for !! Being hungry I eat it ..only to realise that the others were served some thing different !!
Then seeing something scribbled on top of the cover I came to know that it was a Spl Hindu meal that was served to me as requested by my Travel Agent .

So next came the airhostess asking what i wanted to drink ..Phew ..What do u have ? I asked and she handed me a new that I found equally difficult to deal with. So I asked her for Arrack !!#
As I asked her if it was too strong and on getting a affirmitive rely I declined the arrack and settled for a more decent Cognac with Soda and ice. Was not as interesting as I though.Gave it a thumbs down as patiently waited for the hostess to reappear gain. the Brit next seat to me asked for Red wine with his Lamb ..Here I did not want to miss the opportunity though of trying out the same and settled for a Red wine . Tried swrilling around and smelled the wine as suggested by experts courtesy Discovery Travel and living but to no avail. Agreed it was pretty good.

Then went into a small nap and was awaked to eat somthing as Bun ,cheese and tea.
But where can all these fit when the bladder is full ..But with a single loo in front I decided to get entry and relied myself in 20 min after standing in a long 'Q'

The flight seemed never ending as even at 22.00 IST we were happily crusing at 38000 feet. Inthe mean time saw 'Varalaru' movie and was dissappointed that Asin was wasted inthe meaningless role.

Finally at 26 Feb we touched down at 01.30 hrs IST and I ran and got into a wrong 'Q' meant for Brit nationals at Heathrow immigration & Customs...So after much munching and pushing I landed at the correct counter with 4 row blocks full of passengers. Phew It took 4 hrs to get clear of then and get in fron tof the Immigration official.

He then stared to ask all sorts of ususal questions with me answering all of them .Finally his bladder gave way I think as he stamped my Passport and closed his counter to take a leak.

The next big challenge was to get to my Hotel but given that I cost GBP120 to take me there did not serve the purpose.So I decided to take the Tube but lo the counter was closed and I decided to ask around if any alternative was availalable. Finally some sane soul said that I cud get down at Canary wharf and pay for my journey.

I got into the Piccadally line and got down at Green Park a 18 stop journey from Heathrow airport. There I changed into the Jubilee Line to take me to Canary Wharf. After buying a new oyster card and topping it up with 10 pounds .I got out into the shivering cold wind that was blowing . I managed to get direction to my hotel and beagan my long trek to reach it .It was 06.00 hrs IST and I was still awake !!

Finally I managed to reach the Hotel with my Hands numb in the cold weather.And finally hit the bed onthe 9th floor only to awake in another 5.30 later to get back to work !!

Phew what a journey !!